Revised 1 March 2025


The dominant ethos of our Western culture over the past 200 years has been economic growth made possible by fossil fuels which are a convenient and energy dense form of energy. Abundant and cheap fossil fuels have enabled exponential growth in world population and economies as measured by GDP. The burning of fossil fuels and emissions of greenhouse gases has resulted in human-induced climate change. 


It is critical to understand that climate change is but one of many symptoms of a wider ecological overshoot.  We have already exceeded Earth’s carrying capacity and our current ecological footprint exceeds our global bio-capacity by 56% (Wackernagel et al. 2021). We are rapidly eroding our own ecosphere, the life-support system upon which we all depend. We have already crossed several critical thresholds, and are dangerously close to many others (Rockström 2009; Seibert and Rees 2021). 


We must reduce fossil fuel consumption to put a brake on the already disastrous impacts of climate change which, if left unaddressed, is an existential threat to all forms of life on Earth (Lenton et al. 2008; Steffen et al. 2018). We need to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. 


Renewable energy such as wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal cannot bootstrap the formation of renewable energy infrastructure by itself. Continued use of fossil fuels is required to enable a transition at the very same time we need to immediately reduce the burning of fossil fuels which generate greenhouse gas emissions.


The energy returned on energy invested (EROI) to extract fossil fuels from the ground is declining. There are strong indications that conventional oil production has peaked, the maximum rate of extraction has plateaued, and the net energy available from global fossil fuel production has peaked and will now decline (Hall et al. 2014; Chapman 2014; Delannoy et al. 2021; Bihouix 2021). Declines in EROI can only but accelerate. 


Renewable energy has a much lower EROI than conventional oil in the 20th century when the EROIs of fossil fuels was much higher than it is now (Seibert & Rees 2021; Capellán-Pérez et al. 2019). Battery storage of renewable energy is less energy dense and portable for transport purposes than fossil fuels (Seibert & Rees 2021). 


It is impossible to scale up renewable energy to meet current energy per-capita levels because renewable energy is critically dependent on the use of scarce and rare minerals (Michaux 2021; Bihouix 2021). Photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, and battery storage requires the use of increasingly scarce minerals which require progressively more energy to mine. Reaching “net zero” globally by 2050 would require six times the amount of mineral resources used today (IEA 2021). 


We would have to use fossil fuels to mine these materials and build and implement renewable energy infrastructure at the same time that net energy available from fossil fuels will soon peak and then begin to decline (Delannoy 2021). Sustainable energy sources simply cannot scale up to the same energy levels per capita that we currently enjoy in the well-developed countries. We have already mined the low hanging fruit of highly concentrated minerals. We simply cannot quantitatively replace current energy consumption provided mainly by fossil fuels with energy from renewables (Michaux 2021; Seibert & Rees 2021; Bihouix 2021). High EROIs of fossil fuels enabled exponential growth in populations and economies in the Twentieth Century. In the Twenty First Century, we now face a future where there will be less energy per capita. Continued increases in consumption per capita will be impossible. Priorities as to what constitutes non-essential consumption over and above essential consumption will need to be examined and revised. 


Any attempts to continue business-as-usual economic growth while also avoiding climate change through a transition from fossil fuels to renewables will only but lead towards increasing ecological overshoot and collapse through biodiversity loss, ecosystems breakdown, soil depletion, resource depletion, and all the other symptoms of overshoot. 


We need to rapidly reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, starting immediately, to mitigate the impact of climate change by reducing our use of fossil fuels. At the same time, we still need to use fossil fuels to enable a transition from fossil fuels to that of renewable energy and infrastructure (Seibert and Rees 2021). The only way out of this conundrum is to radically reduce our current levels of consumption and divert the use of fossil fuels away from extravagant and unnecessary consumption to a limited renewable energy system that can support a lower-energy society. Reducing our consumption of fossil fuels means keeping most of our fossil fuel reserves in the ground to avoid exceeding critical climate change threshold (McGlade & Ekins 2014). Further exploration of fossil fuels would be a waste of energy and reduce our budget of fossil fuels which we need to enable a transition. If we squander our limited budget of fossil fuels on foolhardy explorations for more fossil fuels and frivolous consumption, then we will lose our last chance to make a global transition to renewable energy and infrastructure. 


Our total supply of energy from renewables/renewables per capita will be limited in the future and communities can ill afford a minority of citizens from squandering the following resources on private transport - consumption of electricity, embodied energy, materials to construct the heavyweight EVs, and scarce materials for batteries - when the community has a greater public need and use for the same energy and materials. It is physically impossible for everyone to replace their ICE car with an electric car. There are, however, less energy intensive options available - walking, bikes, electric bikes and scooters, community shared electric cars, and public electric transport. 


A smooth transition will not happen unless we face up to realities and respond to the urgent need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions without delay by reducing our current production and consumption of frivolous and unnecessary goods and services. We need to learn how to live well on a much-reduced budget of energy during and after a transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy sources and infrastructure. A dramatic reduction in consumption by the rich countries will not necessarily result in a dramatic decline in welfare and happiness. Excessive consumption of energy used in the production of goods and services does not necessarily lead to greater well-being. A decent living standard can be had at less than a tenth of energy consumption of what New Zealanders currently use, based on data provided by Joel Millward-Hopkins (2020). 


Transition is a communal and national effort which must be built on acceptance of the limits of planetary resources and be a just  and fair transition. We need to recognise that equitable sustainability requires an economic levelling. People on extreme high incomes have much greater surpluses which, if spent on goods and services, result in greater greenhouse gas emissions than those on lower incomes. The richest 10% of people in the world in the well-developed countries, and that includes New Zealanders, are responsible for 49% of CO2 emissions. The poorest 50% of people in the world are responsible for only around 10% of total lifestyle consumption emissions. Excessive inequality exists not only between countries but also within countries. 


Fiscal and other regulatory mechanisms are required to ensure redistribution of income, wealth, and opportunity among and within countries. Greater equality is better for everyone. It is as supportive localised communities that we can continue to thrive, but everyone needs to participate equally in reducing their consumption. Many of our actions to mitigate the impact of climate change and reduce our impact on the environment will improve the quality of life for families and enhance and promote a greater sense of community. 

A key to global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions is for all citizens of the world to participate equally. If those on higher incomes do not participate, then the efforts of all others will be in vain. Participation can be voluntary or enforced by our institutions. Failing that, nature itself in due course will enforce a reduction in consumption.


Those on higher income have a greater surplus than those on lower incomes others. Any surpluses should not be used on frivolous and unnecessary consumption but instead used to invest in long-term reductions in CO2e emissions while remaining within our global carbon budgets. Part of this surplus could be used to invest in personal further long-term reductions in CO2e or gifted to community projects which develop renewables. 


Some people who are able to generate income at a higher rate per hour could choose to work fewer hours and convert their potential greater surplus into more leisure time. Progressive Taxes on high incomes will ensure reductions in consumption by those on higher incomes.


The most effective and equitable way of ensuring a smooth transition for everyone is rationing. An example is Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs). Relying on Carbon Taxes and the market place alone to restrict consumption does not prevent those on higher incomes from continuing to contribute the highest CO2e emissions per capita. 


It is logically impossible for perpetual economic and population growth to occur on a finite planet. Sustainable economic growth is an oxymoron and empirical evidence on resource use and carbon emissions does not support green growth theory (Hickel & Kallis 2020). Excessive claims on resources need to cease. Either we have a planned, orderly contraction (de-growth) of our economy or else a far more chaotic contraction will be forced upon us by nature, likely within a decade from now (Herrington 2020). A fundamental shift in policy is needed. We must move away from GDP growth as the target of our economy, and shift the economic paradigm to de-growth or whatever is needed to live within our ecological carrying capacity. For this transition, a war-footing response is appropriate, an organisational effort that many governments demonstrated with our recent COVID pandemic. In WWII, rationing of fossil fuels was the tool used to divert energy to the war effort. This tool could again be employed to direct the down-shift in energy consumption and emissions. Whether our economies are powered by fossil fuels or renewable energy, continued economic growth – the expansion of the human enterprise on our finite planet Earth - can only but lead to ecological and social decline and collapse (Demaria 2018; Herrington 2021; Seibert and Rees 2021).