Revised 12 July 2025


In November 2020, Peter Carter, an expert IPPC reviewer, was interviewed by Roger Hallam of Extinction Rebellion in a 41-minute video on YouTube titled 'We're looking at Billions of People not being able to Survive'. The message of the this video is that we need to immediately reduce our current consumption levels of goods and services in order to avoid an irreversible runaway of climate change which would result in ecological disaster. We face an existential threat if we do not take immediate action to mitigate the impact of climate change. This begs the question of why has global action been so limited despite overwhelming scientific evidence of our need to stay within planetary boundaries. Why is there a common government and business belief in the desirability and necessity of continuous economic growth, given its logical impossibility on a finite planet? 


Given the level of inaction by governments over the past 30 years despite warnings about climate change, more talk, more submissions, followed by limited necessary action at government level are likely to continue. Tinkering with climate change policies while maintaining business as usual with expectations of and belief in continued economic growth is a futile diversion of focus away from the fundamental underlying causes of climate change – excessive consumption combined with continuing population growth. The policies of government and business simply must no longer be based on the goal and expectations of economic growth. Continuing to do so diminishes the chances of survival for both current and future generations.


 At the individual level, we have more control over our own actions. The message to local communities should be that we, as individuals, are the cause of climate change due to our current levels of consumption of goods and services. By limiting our consumption, we can all play a part in helping to mitigate the impact of climate change. The general public needs to be educated and be aware that the impact of climate change applies to everyone and not just to those unfortunates who live out of sight in another country.


Our actions are driven by our motivations which in turn are driven by our beliefs. Inaction stems from insufficient motivation, itself rooted in a lack of belief. This disbelief might stem from a misinterpretation of our true circumstances. Misinformation and disinformation, coupled with poor critical thinking, undermine scientific evidence, leading to false beliefs. People may intellectually grasp the importance of planetary boundaries, but remain inactive due to apathy and self-interest. They may downplay the need for immediate action, believing their efforts won't matter. Psychology, sociology, and anthropology offer an understanding of this human behaviour.


Cognitive dissonance is that uncomfortable feeling when your actions clash with your beliefs, causing internal conflict. Leon Festinger's book, ‘A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance’, argues that people need internal consistency for mental stability. Internal inconsistency creates psychological discomfort, motivating individuals to adjust beliefs or actions to reduce cognitive dissonance and resolve conflict. To maintain psychological consistency, people unconsciously adjust their actions or beliefs to resolve conflicts between them. They alleviate stress by expanding their cognitive framework, leading to rationalisation or by selectively ignoring contradictory information (confirmation bias). Festinger explains avoiding cognitive dissonance as, "Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.”


Some are in denial that bad things can and do happen - “I am OK now and I expect to be OK tomorrow and for the rest of my life. I don’t see anything bad happening to me”. I am constantly drawn to the quotation by William Gibson - “The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed". The evidence for what can happen to us is there for us to see and comprehend if we only just take the time and effort to look around to see what is happening to populations in other countries. In the early days of Hitler’s rise to power, a minority of commentators foresaw where Germany was heading. In 1939, Chamberlain chose appeasement with Germany. Churchill saw clearly long before WWII the risks of Hitler’s rise to power. Even when bad things happen in front of us in the here and now, some people are unable to take action and instead react inappropriately. They freeze instead of taking action due to being in shock or denial. 


 There are a number of other reasons why some people dismiss, ignore, or deny the impact of climate change. People have different perceptions of when they should take necessary action, even when they know the ultimate conclusion. It is logical that economic growth cannot continue forever on a finite planet and surely even the most die-hard proponents of economic growth would agree to that logic. However, these proponents are reluctant to consider when economic growth should cease. Most retired people know that they will face an inevitable decline and that at some stage they might need to shift from the family home to a smaller home unit or even a rest home in their later years. Nonetheless, a number of retirees stay put until the inevitable is imposed upon them. 


People have different perceptions of time and time preference which change as they grow older. With young people, now is all important. With maturity, adults can see the need to take actions now to ensure they are able to take better care of their future. Some people are prepared to make greater sacrifices now to take care of the future. The future is more real to them.


I once again come back to the quotation – “The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed". As climate change worsens, it is inevitable that the impact of climate change on those less fortunate overseas will spread to other countries. In New Zealand there are some food growing regions which are already prone to drought and flooding. Crops have been wiped out due to heavy hail. More regions in New Zealand will be impacted by climate change as the severity of weather increases. 


We make forecasts of the future based on personal experience or the experience of others. We get a feeling for the degree of likelihood of some things happening in the future and the risk of undesirable things happening in the future should we not undertake prevention now where possible. There are some future outcomes that are 100% certain. For example, we know with 100% certainty that we cannot survive for more than a few days without water or a few weeks without food. We know with 100% certainty that if globally we allow all our soil to erode, then millions of people will starve. Although some potential outcomes can be 100% certain, no one can foretell the unfolding of events leading to a future outcome with 100% certainty.


Whether or not we take personal action now to mitigate the impact of climate change depends on whether we perceive climate change to be a real risk or not despite whether the impact of climate change has impinged on our own life styles so far. The evidence that climate change already has a severe impact on populations in other countries and ecosystems outside of New Zealand is well beyond dispute. Personal action also depends on the empathy we have for other people, future generations, and other animals and ecosystems. Globally, we are all in the same boat, and mitigating the severity of climate change depends on the collective actions of all citizens in all countries. There is no wiggle room for freeloading by either countries or individuals.